The holiday period has come and gone, but one question still looms large over Canadian politics: when will Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finally speak up about his future?
It’s been a month since Chrystia Freeland, Trudeau’s finance minister and former ally, resigned in a scathing public letter that criticized the prime minister. Since then, Trudeau has largely disappeared from public view, with some speculating that he may be planning to step aside.
But lawmakers within the Liberal Party are growing increasingly anxious about the delay. As polling numbers for the party continue to slide, many Liberals are urging Trudeau to make a decision – and fast.
The Pressure Mounts
A recent survey by Nanos Research found that the Conservative Party has extended its lead over the Liberals, with many voters expressing concerns about social programs being cut under a new government. The Liberal Party’s hold on parliament is precarious, with the three largest opposition parties promising to vote "no confidence" if Trudeau doesn’t step down.
"It’s not tenable for the prime minister to stay," said Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos Research. "The longer he waits to address both his party and the country, the more he risks provoking a Liberal rebellion."
A Leadership Race Looms
If Trudeau does decide to resign, the Liberal Party will need to hold a leadership contest – a process that could take months to complete. Even if they’re able to avoid a forced election during this time, the winner would have a relatively short period to campaign before being thrown into a national election.
"A politically wounded prime minister is not really in a very strong position to negotiate anything with someone like Donald Trump," said Nanos.
A Difficult Road Ahead
The Liberal Party has dominated Canadian federal politics since the Second World War, but faces an uphill battle in 2025. Even with a new leader, they would need to undergo a significant turnaround in public opinion just to save most of their seats – let alone hold onto government.
As one analyst noted, "He took the Liberals out of the wilderness," referring to Trudeau’s leadership in 2013. "It very well may be that he will return them to the political wilderness at the end of the next federal election."
What Next for Trudeau?
With the Liberal Party’s future hanging in the balance, it remains to be seen whether Trudeau will finally speak up about his plans. Will he step aside and allow a new leader to take the reins, or will he try to lead the party through an election?
Only time will tell – but one thing is clear: Canada can’t afford to wait much longer for a decision from its prime minister.
