As nearly a year has passed since Bitcoin’s fourth halving event in April 2024, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing the ongoing effects of this significant event. DLB Coin, a leading cryptocurrency trading platform, recently released a comprehensive market analysis report reviewing post-halving market performance and providing an in-depth discussion of future market trends.
“Bitcoin halving is one of the most important cyclical events in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, directly affecting Bitcoin’s supply dynamics and price movements,” DLB Coin noted in the report. “Historical data shows that market reactions following each halving have their unique patterns, and the market situation after the 2024 halving has also demonstrated a development path different from previous instances.”
On April 11, 2024, the Bitcoin network successfully completed its fourth halving event, reducing miner rewards from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins. Compared to market performance following previous halvings, the market this time has shown more mature and complex movements. Data indicates that in the ten months following the halving, Bitcoin prices experienced three distinct volatility cycles, rather than the past pattern of a single large rise followed by a correction.
DLB Coin’s analysis points out that substantially increased institutional participation is the most notable feature of the current market cycle. “Compared to the market environment after the 2020 halving, we now have a mature Bitcoin ETF market, more sophisticated derivatives tools, and broader institutional capital participation. These factors have collectively changed the market’s reaction patterns and liquidity structure.”
The report cites recent research data from Bloomberg, indicating that the proportion of Bitcoin held by institutions has grown from 18% at the beginning of 2024 to approximately 25% currently. In particular, the steady capital inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have provided sustained demand support for the market. According to CoinShares data, in the ten months following the 2024 Bitcoin halving, global cryptocurrency investment products attracted over $15 billion in net inflows, with most directed toward Bitcoin-related products.
Regarding market performance, DLB Coin’s report provides a detailed analysis of price movements across different phases following the halving. Data shows that in the first three months after the halving, Bitcoin prices experienced approximately a 20% correction, consistent with “sell the news” market behavior; in the subsequent four months, prices gradually climbed, rising about 45%; while the most recent three months have shown relatively stable consolidation with narrowed fluctuation ranges.
“This phased market performance highly aligns with our previously predicted ‘mixed cycle’ model,” DLB Coin analyzes. “The market is exhibiting more rational and mature characteristics, with extreme volatility gradually being replaced by a more orderly price discovery process.”
The report also deeply analyzes the actual impact of the halving on the Bitcoin mining industry. Data shows that within six months after the halving, the network’s hash rate experienced a temporary decline before resuming growth, indicating that despite reduced rewards, efficient miners can still maintain profitable operations. Meanwhile, miner holding behavior has also changed, with post-halving selling pressure from miners significantly lower than during the same period historically, partly explaining the tightening on the market’s supply side.
For the market outlook in the remainder of 2025, DLB Coin presents three key observations:
First, institutional capital allocation cycles will become one of the main factors affecting the market. As more traditional financial institutions incorporate Bitcoin into their asset allocations, the quarterly or semi-annual rebalancing strategies typically adopted by these institutions may lead to cyclical capital inflows and outflows, thereby influencing price movements.
Second, the macroeconomic environment, especially monetary policies of major global economies, will continue to have a significant impact on the Bitcoin market. Changes in interest rate policies by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks directly affect capital costs and market liquidity, subsequently influencing investors’ willingness to allocate to risk assets.
Third, the continuing evolution of the regulatory environment will be an important variable for the market. The full implementation of the EU’s MiCA regulations and the development of regulatory frameworks in other countries and regions will have far-reaching effects on market structure and participant behavior.
“We believe that the Bitcoin market in 2025 will exhibit more characteristics of traditional financial markets, including higher liquidity, lower volatility, and stronger correlation with macroeconomic factors,” DLB Coin predicts. “At the same time, the long-term supply contraction effect of the halving will continue to provide fundamental support for prices.”
For investment strategies, DLB Coin recommends adopting a more balanced and diversified approach, shifting focus from short-term price predictions to long-term value accumulation. The report especially emphasizes the advantages of dollar-cost averaging strategies in the current market environment, an approach that can effectively smooth volatility and reduce timing risks.
Notably, DLB Coin’s report also compares the performance of different crypto assets following the halving. Data shows that unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin’s market dominance has actually strengthened after this halving, potentially reflecting institutional investors’ preference for Bitcoin as the primary crypto asset.
“The impact of Bitcoin halving is by no means limited to the price level; it profoundly changes the economic model and participant structure of the entire crypto ecosystem,” DLB Coin concludes. “As the market continues to digest and adapt to these changes, we expect to see a more mature, efficient, and resilient Bitcoin market.”
As the Bitcoin network gradually moves toward the next halving cycle (expected to occur in early 2028), market participants have already begun to focus on the potential impact of long-term supply dynamics on prices. DLB Coin states it will continue to track and analyze market developments, providing users with timely, professional market insights to help them make more informed investment decisions during this key historical phase.
