While Bitcoin (BTC) has reached new heights in recent times, with prices tapping $93,500 and gaining nearly 50% in Q4, it still hasn’t matched all-time highs against major macro assets like the S&P 500, gold, and others. Caleb Franzen, creator of financial research resource Cubic Analytics, predicted that BTC’s price outperformance will happen next.
The Looming Question: When, Not If
According to Franzen, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes remain unbeaten by Bitcoin — a reality also true for the NYSE FANG+ tech stock index and gold. This is a significant observation, as it suggests that Bitcoin still has some ground to cover before it can be considered a major macro asset.
A Glimpse into History
For US stocks, the key moment in Bitcoin’s history was early 2021, even before BTC/USD set all-time highs of $69,000. These records have since fallen over and over, but Bitcoin is still working on setting new all-time highs across the macro asset spectrum.
A Breakthrough Against Gold
Last week, Cointelegraph reported on the market now gaining ground against gold, which had a head start of several months in setting new all-time highs in dollar terms. Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, forecasted a "rapid repricing" once BTC/USD broke out.
A Long-Term Perspective
Edwards shared a long-term chart of gold’s own breakout in the 2000s after spending 20 years below previous all-time highs from 1980. BTC/USD could now do likewise, he suggested.
XAU/USD vs. BTC/USD
Source: Charles Edwards/XB
Bearish Perspectives Emerge
In a dramatic alternative take, Il Capo of Crypto, a popular but increasingly infamous Bitcoin trader, is now implying that a crash across risk assets is due. On November 15th, he returned to his Telegram channel with a photograph suggesting a black swan event was imminent.
A Crash Across Risk Assets?
While no commentary was given, the post rapidly began to circulate on social media, with users recalling Il Capo of Crypto’s $12,000 BTC price target, among other things. As Cointelegraph reported, bearish perspectives on Bitcoin continue to surface, with fellow trader Credible Crypto recently calling for $50,000 or lower for the pair.
The Downside Target
In his latest X analysis, Credible Crypto flagged $72,000 as the downside target to watch. "If we take our highs at 93.8k in a clear, impulsive move that breaks 100k+ then 72k and below is likely gone until the next bear market," he wrote alongside accompanying charts.
Implications for BTC/USD
"If we instead sweep our highs and fail to produce a final, 5th subwave then it implies this move was indeed corrective and makes the odds of us retesting 70-72k AT LEAST exponentially higher."
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Credible Crypto
Conclusion
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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